Analysis: Russia and Europe in crisis

United Press International's Moscow correspondent Peter Lavelle engages Russia experts Dale Herspring, Eric Kraus, Ira Straus, Vlad Sobell, Peter Rutland, Ethan Burger, and Vladimir Frolov on how the current political crisis in Europe will affect EU-Russia relations. The following are excerpts.

UPI. France and the Netherlands have resoundingly voted down the European Union Constitution. The political fallout for the future of the EU has only started. Is this a concern for Russian foreign policy?

Dale Herspring, professor of political science, Kansas State University. "For the Russians, I think the vote in France and Netherlands is good news, very good news! If I were Vladimir Putin, I would be dancing the floors of the Kremlin. Why? For two reasons: First, Moscow faced the prospect of dealing with a much more unified EU at a time when it is still trying to make its economy competitive, trying to establish political stability and create something resembling democracy Russian style. Second, assuming Paris and Berlin dominated the more unified EU, Putin would have found it more difficult to run two foreign policies -- one toward Washington and the other toward Paris and Berlin. Now, however, he is under far less pressure to conform to EU policy."

Eric Kraus, chief strategist, Sovlink Securities, Moscow. "The larger European countries, France in particular, will ... have to find another means to continue their long tradition of punching above their class -- they are almost certain to repatriate the setting of foreign policy from Brussels. Russia will be of overriding importance to "Old Europe". For France, a closer alliance with Russia might allow the illusion of French geopolitical importance to be maintained for a while longer. Certainly, given the shortsighted and narcissistic U.S. policy toward Russia, those countries refusing a unipolar world run from Washington will be keen to fill the diplomatic breach. For Germany (and to a lesser extent, Italy and Spain) it is a matter of vital imperatives. Russia is not only the key energy supplier, without whom Germany freezes in the dark, but it is also the largest, deepest and most liquid export market for Germany, and vitally, does not compete with German enterprises."

Ira Straus, U.S. coordinator of the Committee on Eastern Europe and Russia in NATO. "These realities have not changed. Russia continues to need constructive relations with both the Western countries individually and collectively. If it were to give in to temptation and try to pit the countries against the institutions, its policy would boomerang: any tactical gains would pale before the strategic losses and the distrust it would accumulate. Old Europe would become more like New Europe in its view of Russia and would rush to America for cover. In the end Russia would have to come back again anyway, in worse conditions, to plead for closer relations. It would do better to stay on course in the here and now."

Vlad Sobell, senior economist, Daiwa Research, U.K. "I do not see any reason why Moscow should alter its relations with the European Union, at least in the near term. However, I would suggest that the Kremlin relaxes and enjoys the spectacle. After years of offering Putin unsolicited lectures on how to be democratic, the lecturers themselves are being taken to task by their own populace. The Europeans are tired of their oppressive managed democracy and the lacking checks and balances. They will no longer go along with fraudulent referendums, which are habitually repeated until the establishment gets the 'right answer.'"

Peter Rutland, professor of government, Wesleyan University. "Russia may derive some "schadenfreude" from seeing other nations' politicians screw up. Moscow had warned the European Union against taking in the 10 new eastern members -- and now their reaction could well be 'We told you so,' since the burden of enlargement seems to have tipped the balance of public opinion in France and Holland against approving the new constitution. Such a reaction is shortsighted, however. First, Jacque Chirac and Gerhard Schroeder were Putin's closest allies, and their careers are now over.

"Second, Russia would have found it easier to deal with a more unified Europe, but now that entity will be delayed for another decade, leaving Moscow to cope with the messy reality of the existing EU bureaucracy."

Ethan S. Burger, scholar-in-residence, School of International Service, American University. "It remains premature to assess whether France's and the Netherlands' rejection of the EU Constitution will be 'good for Moscow.' While a more integrated Europe might serve as a counter-balance to U.S. foreign and economic policy, it might also mean the silencing of minority opinions on critical issues.

"From a population perspective, Russia remains the largest 'European' country, but the country's influence is due largely to its role as a supplier to the EU of energy and raw materials. The referenda will not change this situation."

Vladimir Frolov, Fund for Effective Politics, Moscow. "The dramatic votes in France and in the Netherlands to strike down the EU Constitution will not have a negative impact on Russia-EU relationship in the short term. It will continue to lumber on without significant breakthroughs.

"The legal pillars of the relationship -- the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement or PSA, as well as the recently signed Four Spaces -- will stay in place and both sides will go through the motions to mark some incremental progress here or there. What is likely to be adversely affected by the ensuing turmoil in Brussels will be the focus, the concentration and the ability of the EU to come to agreement on issues important to Russia."