Scenarios for our «movie»

The problem of the status of the Kaliningrad region, its preservation in the structure of the Russian Federation depends on the answers that will be given on challenges of the time. Could the USA (Atlanticist pole) carry out the functions of the global control individually? What is the place and the role of Europe in the “the new world order”? What is the place and the role of Russia in the unipolar world?

 The most probable scenarios of events are the following:
The first scenario - Eurasian (or multipolar): the European Union aims to increase the geopolitical influence turning into independent strategic and economic force. Such strengthening is possible only with support on Russia, military potential, resources and international influence that are necessary (additional) conditions for achievement of the original geopolitical sovereignty by Europe. Such development of events will further lead to multipolar world order where in the issue of planetary control the USA will have the partners (perhaps, the competitors, not ideological but geopolitical) in Europe, Asia and Eurasia as a whole. It will mean continuation of integration processes in Europe, and also integration of Europe with Russia. Accordingly, the intermediate zone - between the Russian Federation and the European Union - will be transformed into the space of positive integration taking into account both participants of the strategic alliance.

It is easy to foresee that the status of the Kaliningrad region should be built into these long-term perspectives of the Russian-European rapprochement. We have to speak about giving the Kaliningrad region - as integral part of the territory of the Russian Federation – a special exclusive position within the European Union (in customs, visa, diplomatic, economic senses). The entire region should carry out the functions of the geopolitical bridge between Russia (Eurasia) and the European Union. Thus for harmonious development of all the process it makes sense to preserve the legal status quo of this territory with the emphasis on active involving of the European structures in revival of all the territory of the region. In connection with special historical conditions it will also make sense to accelerate adjustment of the process of integration on the territory of the region not just with neighboring east-European countries (as a rule, badly integrated in the European Union), but also with central administrative structures of the European Union as a whole. Taking into account all global context of the described scenario, we can call such solution of the Kaliningrad problem as the Eurasian solution.
The second scenario - Atlanticist (unipolar): the USA persist in implementation of individual global domination, insist on one-polarity, prevents from occurrence of the alternative geopolitical poles capable for achievement of limited, but still geopolitical strategic sovereignty. In this case for the USA it is necessary to create obstacles for rapprochement between the European Union and the Russian Federation, because without this alliance neither united Europe, nor Russia can strengthen its joint geopolitical potential in the nearest perspective. In that case the USA will necessarily resort to traditional tactics of “sanitary cordon” approved in the Eastern Europe by Atlanticist England. The sense of “the sanitary cordon” in the previous centuries was to prevent fatal political union between the Russian empire and Germany (i.e. the Central Europe) for the countries of the Western Europe (England and France). The space of “the sanitary cordon” should be configured so that to generate political friction between the Central Europe and Russia, to cause conflict situations, to force disharmonious chains of mutual territorial claims, etc. This Anglo-Saxon strategy (ancient “divide et impera”) certainly gave its effect, result of that was the alignment of forces both in the First, and in the Second world wars where Germany invariably lost (and indirectly Russia), and the Western Europe won (in the second case - even more western, the trans-oceanic USA).

If this scenario is implemented, then all zone from the Baltic up to the Black Sea will be transformed into “the belt of instability” where the third force (USA) will constantly provoke and force contradictions between the Russian Federation and Europe (at a new historical stage it is  geopolitical synonym of Germany in the last centuries). In this situation today's problems of the Kaliningrad region are understandable. As from the legal point of view it is absurd to speak about restitution of these territories to Germany from Europe, the tension will be forced by different ways. In this case it is important to take into account the positions of adjacent territories with former Eastern Prussia where there are other countries potentially making an axis of “the sanitary cordon”, - first of all the Baltics and Poland. It is not excluded that at the certain moment marginal nationalist circles of Germany will be involved. We should repeat once again: such turn of events is favourable only to “the third force”, but not to the European Union and Russia. But at the same time, this “the third force” will never begin to act openly - the USA will easily remove all the attempts to reproach them in partiality to the given issue saying that it is “only the European problem”. However, in view of mechanisms of geopolitical influence of the USA on the policy of both Europe and Russia, it is possible to expect that the Europeans will act as formal carriers of escalation of tension around the Kaliningrad region, especially with active participation of the east-European countries that may act in this issue on its own behalf.  The “patriotic” forces in Russia will react on this (objectively accompanying atlantism), and “the sanitary cordon” will become effective means of Anglo-Saxon policy - the Russian-European relations will be strictly controlled through east-European belt in favorable key to American globalists.

It is clear enough that it is in the interests of Russia to implement the first scenario. Therefore when solving the Kaliningrad problem it is necessary to act extremely precisely, consistently, not taking a great interest in emotions and not giving in to the steps and applications, sharp reaction on which the forces applying for the global control and  establishment of unipolar “new world order” want to achieve from us.